Media Appearances

Here are my three most recent media appearances from Friday - Bloomberg radio (Taking Stock with Pimm Fox) and BNN TV (Canadian Business News Network) - and yesterday - foxbusiness.com (with Tracy Byrnes). The topics of discussion include the impact that rising gas prices are likely to have on consumers; impressions from the early 2012 events; and a very useful technical analysis tool for timing the more important intermediate term trend of the equity markets.



Bloomberg radio

BNN TV

Taking Stock appearance

Following on my foxbusiness.com appearance (see post below), my most recent Taking Stock with Pimm Fox and Courtney Donohue includes concerns re the risks of the US markets marching ahead of world markets and, wearing the interviewer hat, I get to quiz fellow guest Doug Ramsey. To listen, click here

foxbusiness.com appearance

My appearance yesterday with Tracy Byrnes at Fox Business explores the January effect, the importance of seeing the full January performance and not just the first two weeks, the continued hollowing out of the US economy, and the consequences of the whopping $20B increase consumer credit.

Taking Stock appearance

My most recent Taking Stock with Pimm Fox and Courtney Donohue is a year end look at the markets and economy. To listen, click here

foxbusiness.com appearance today

foxbusiness.com appearance today

Talking Head Alert: foxbusiness.com Today

Okay, so I look prescient (at least for 3 days) after last Thursday's appearance on Bloomberg radio's "Talking Stock with Pimm Fox and Courtney Donohoe" some 60 S&P 500 points ago. Now what?

Today's talking head appearance affords me another opportunity to describe my emerging bear call and can be viewed at foxbusiness.com (not on cable) at 1 PM (eastern) today.

In addition to my submitted suggested talking points (below, sent yesterday), I hope to explain why
1 - Big market moves within defined trading ranges mean nothing.
2 - On its own, moves above and below the 200 day average also mean nothing.

Plus the emerging bull market in Komboloi (see accompanying image).

Suggested talking points:

Commentary: Blind Faith

* Bottom up type of investors - those that make investment decisions based primarily (many exclusively) on earnings - have helped drive stocks to current levels.
* Following their lead is a very dangerous practice for investors, as bottom up investors have an investment method that is fraught with danger.
* Last Thursday's stock market rally illustrated just how dangerous their approach to investing is: driving stocks higher on the news of the Eurozone deal without full knowledge of the deal's consequences.
* Their method - earnings matter above all else - is anchored in the belief that what's good for business is good for the economy. To believe this is to believe in laissez-faire economics, that unfettered markets work best, that government that governs least governs best.
* One would think that the recent experience (2007 - 2009) would have put this thinking to bed. But old ideas based on an ideology (dogma) die hard.

Market Assessment

* There is neither a fundamental nor a technical analysis reason to change my early bear call.
* My proprietary Mega Trend is still strongly in the bear category.
* Earnings are on the verge of a serious decline into 2012 (and beyond) as the Eurozone slips into recession.
* At best, stocks should sell at a low double digit P/E, not the current average (15 times) P/E.

Actionable Items

* Resist the siren call of the bottom up bulls. Keep a low equity exposure (50 to 60%).
* Put on mega cap, small cap hedges (long mega cap OEF, long the inverse small cap RWM).
* Be prepared to drop the equity exposure below 50% when the second wave of the bear emerges.

To view the segment live, click here.

Bloomberg Radio Today

In addition to answering (explaining!?! defending!?!) why I believe this is a counter rally within an emerging bear market, I am hopeful that today's Bloomberg radio segment (4:30 PM easter, "Talking Stock with Pimm Fox and Courtney Donohoe") will touch on the risks inherent in the methodology that most traditionally trained bottom-up portfolio managers and strategists employ in their investment decision-making. And why it is risky to follow those who employ this approach with its faulty premises and embedded blind spots.

To listen to the segment live, click here.

China's Ghost Cities

This week's Quotable Quotes takes a look at China's ghost cities via a recent (March 2011) investigative report from SBS Dateline (Australian TV). If investors are looking for the other economic shoe to drop on the tenuous global economic environment, this very well could ultimately be the source.

September 30 media appearances

On Friday, September 30, I had the pleasure of being a guest on two programs - foxbusiness.com with Tracy Byrnes and Bloomberg radio''s "Talking Stock with Pimm Fox and Courtney Donohoe".

Topics discussed include the prospect of disappointing, perhaps very disappointing, 3Q11 earnings; asset allocation and portfolio strategies for these volatile markets; and the market impact and importance of family offices.



To listen to the Bloomberg radio interview click here.

September 1 Bloomberg radio appearance

To listen to my interview on Taking Stock with Pimm Fox and Courtney Donohue click here.

Media Appearances today

The time and segments are as follows:

Foxbusiness.com at 1 PM (eastern)

http://www.bloomberg.com/radio/ around 3 PM (eastern)

Prospective talking points:

1 - Overly optimistic earnings expectations by bottom-up analysts. A rude awakening awaits when 3Q11 earnings season gets underway. My proprietary MERI sits at -11.

2 - How the current bear market got started in an extremely rare fashion and why, for most investors, the current market rally will be so hard to sell into.

3 - My recent 10 day trip to Brazil. Impressions on the country and questions as why the US does not have a stronger presence there.

August 9 foxbusiness.com Appearance

Robert Steven Kaplan

It isn't everyday that we get to hear the former vice chairman of the Goldman Sachs Group share his thoughts and insights into the current economic and market environment.

Currently, Rob is professor of management practice at Harvard Business School and co-chairman of Draper Richard kaplan, a global venture philanthropy firm. Rob is also the author of the just published "What To Ask The Person In The Mirror": Critical Questions for Becoming a More Effective Leader and Reaching Your Potential.

In addition to discussing key aspects of his book, my podcast interview with Rob produced several very insightful thoughts on these most turbulent times, including the "series of sagas" investors are coping with, the implication of the changing structure of the market (e.g. capital impact on commercial banks during market swings, initiators and accelerators, pro-cyclicality), and President Obama and the question of vision and leadership.

The length of the interview is 21 minutes 18 seconds.

To listen to this interview, click here

Expansionary Austerity: A New Economic Philosophy

Taking Stock with Pimm Fox

In my Friday, July 1st appearance on Bloomberg radio with Pimm Fox we discussed the current state of the equity markets, among other topics.

To listen to the interview, click here.

Vahan Janjigian

My good friend, and former Chief Investment Strategist with Forbes, Vaham Janjigian, made his initial appearance on foxbusiness.com with Tracy Byrnes. Hearing Vahan's opinions and insights are always well worth the time.

In The Media

In this interview, I bring back a point I made on a number of occasions in the past - the conflicted position of the US worker, who also happens to be the US consumer. In a globalized world, one wins (consumer) while the other loses (worker).

The Mr. Miyagi Market

Yesterday, my latest appearance on foxbusiness.com with Tracy Byrnes afforded me the opportunity to describe the Mr. Miyagi market (wax on, wax off).

Note: The above interview was ended at roughly the halfway pooint by foxbusiness.com editors for (I assume) their media posting purposes.

Say What?

Another talking head moment, this time via my appearance yesterday on foxbusiness.com