Thursday, December 29, 2011

Taking Stock appearance

My most recent Taking Stock with Pimm Fox and Courtney Donohue is a year end look at the markets and economy. To listen, click here

Tuesday, November 1, 2011 appearance today

Talking Head Alert: Today

Okay, so I look prescient (at least for 3 days) after last Thursday's appearance on Bloomberg radio's "Talking Stock with Pimm Fox and Courtney Donohoe" some 60 S&P 500 points ago. Now what?

Today's talking head appearance affords me another opportunity to describe my emerging bear call and can be viewed at (not on cable) at 1 PM (eastern) today.

In addition to my submitted suggested talking points (below, sent yesterday), I hope to explain why
1 - Big market moves within defined trading ranges mean nothing.
2 - On its own, moves above and below the 200 day average also mean nothing.

Plus the emerging bull market in Komboloi (see accompanying image).

Suggested talking points:

Commentary: Blind Faith

* Bottom up type of investors - those that make investment decisions based primarily (many exclusively) on earnings - have helped drive stocks to current levels.
* Following their lead is a very dangerous practice for investors, as bottom up investors have an investment method that is fraught with danger.
* Last Thursday's stock market rally illustrated just how dangerous their approach to investing is: driving stocks higher on the news of the Eurozone deal without full knowledge of the deal's consequences.
* Their method - earnings matter above all else - is anchored in the belief that what's good for business is good for the economy. To believe this is to believe in laissez-faire economics, that unfettered markets work best, that government that governs least governs best.
* One would think that the recent experience (2007 - 2009) would have put this thinking to bed. But old ideas based on an ideology (dogma) die hard.

Market Assessment

* There is neither a fundamental nor a technical analysis reason to change my early bear call.
* My proprietary Mega Trend is still strongly in the bear category.
* Earnings are on the verge of a serious decline into 2012 (and beyond) as the Eurozone slips into recession.
* At best, stocks should sell at a low double digit P/E, not the current average (15 times) P/E.

Actionable Items

* Resist the siren call of the bottom up bulls. Keep a low equity exposure (50 to 60%).
* Put on mega cap, small cap hedges (long mega cap OEF, long the inverse small cap RWM).
* Be prepared to drop the equity exposure below 50% when the second wave of the bear emerges.

To view the segment live, click here.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

Bloomberg Radio Today

In addition to answering (explaining!?! defending!?!) why I believe this is a counter rally within an emerging bear market, I am hopeful that today's Bloomberg radio segment (4:30 PM easter, "Talking Stock with Pimm Fox and Courtney Donohoe") will touch on the risks inherent in the methodology that most traditionally trained bottom-up portfolio managers and strategists employ in their investment decision-making. And why it is risky to follow those who employ this approach with its faulty premises and embedded blind spots.

To listen to the segment live, click here.

Friday, October 14, 2011

China's Ghost Cities

This week's Quotable Quotes takes a look at China's ghost cities via a recent (March 2011) investigative report from SBS Dateline (Australian TV). If investors are looking for the other economic shoe to drop on the tenuous global economic environment, this very well could ultimately be the source.

Friday, October 7, 2011

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

September 30 media appearances

On Friday, September 30, I had the pleasure of being a guest on two programs - with Tracy Byrnes and Bloomberg radio''s "Talking Stock with Pimm Fox and Courtney Donohoe".

Topics discussed include the prospect of disappointing, perhaps very disappointing, 3Q11 earnings; asset allocation and portfolio strategies for these volatile markets; and the market impact and importance of family offices.

To listen to the Bloomberg radio interview click here.

Saturday, September 3, 2011

Thursday, September 1, 2011

September 1 Fox Business appearance

Media Appearances today

The time and segments are as follows: at 1 PM (eastern) around 3 PM (eastern)

Prospective talking points:

1 - Overly optimistic earnings expectations by bottom-up analysts. A rude awakening awaits when 3Q11 earnings season gets underway. My proprietary MERI sits at -11.

2 - How the current bear market got started in an extremely rare fashion and why, for most investors, the current market rally will be so hard to sell into.

3 - My recent 10 day trip to Brazil. Impressions on the country and questions as why the US does not have a stronger presence there.

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Robert Steven Kaplan

It isn't everyday that we get to hear the former vice chairman of the Goldman Sachs Group share his thoughts and insights into the current economic and market environment.

Currently, Rob is professor of management practice at Harvard Business School and co-chairman of Draper Richard kaplan, a global venture philanthropy firm. Rob is also the author of the just published "What To Ask The Person In The Mirror": Critical Questions for Becoming a More Effective Leader and Reaching Your Potential.

In addition to discussing key aspects of his book, my podcast interview with Rob produced several very insightful thoughts on these most turbulent times, including the "series of sagas" investors are coping with, the implication of the changing structure of the market (e.g. capital impact on commercial banks during market swings, initiators and accelerators, pro-cyclicality), and President Obama and the question of vision and leadership.

The length of the interview is 21 minutes 18 seconds.

To listen to this interview, click here

Thursday, July 7, 2011

Taking Stock with Pimm Fox

In my Friday, July 1st appearance on Bloomberg radio with Pimm Fox we discussed the current state of the equity markets, among other topics.

To listen to the interview, click here.

Thursday, June 30, 2011

Vahan Janjigian

My good friend, and former Chief Investment Strategist with Forbes, Vaham Janjigian, made his initial appearance on with Tracy Byrnes. Hearing Vahan's opinions and insights are always well worth the time.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

In The Media

In this interview, I bring back a point I made on a number of occasions in the past - the conflicted position of the US worker, who also happens to be the US consumer. In a globalized world, one wins (consumer) while the other loses (worker).

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

The Mr. Miyagi Market

Yesterday, my latest appearance on with Tracy Byrnes afforded me the opportunity to describe the Mr. Miyagi market (wax on, wax off).

Note: The above interview was ended at roughly the halfway pooint by editors for (I assume) their media posting purposes.

Sunday, May 15, 2011

Hedge Fund Managers Adapt

In light of the Rajaratnam conviction, here's how some hedge fund managers might end up sharing their "ideas".

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Say What?

Another talking head moment, this time via my appearance yesterday on

Monday, March 7, 2011

Talking Head Time

This morning I had the opportunity to participate in a week ahead market discussion for BNN TV.

To view part 2, click here

To view part 3, click here

Note: due to technical difficulties, I was not connected for part 1.

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Say What?

Yesterday, I had the opportunity to be a guest on Bloomberg radio's "Taking Stock" program and NDTV (New Delhi Television) Profit's program discussing the current market and economic environment. A key focus explored was one of the two major themes of my recently concluded Market Forecast series (10 events, 10 cities, 34 expert panelists, 920 attendees, in 6 weeks): once the the US economy is taken off stimulus steroids, will it achieve a private sector led sustainable expansion (what economists lovingly refer to as "escape velocity")? The answer will almost certainly disappoint you.

To listen to the "Taking Stock" segment, click here

To view the NDTV segment, click here

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Philip J. Orlando, CFA

My annual interview (this being the fourth) with Federated Investors' Senior Vice President, Chief Equity Market Strategist, Senior Portfolio Manager includes the good news/bad news aspects of the current US economic and corporate profits outlook, the direction of interest rates, an appropriate multiple for stocks, the importance of education as a long term solution to stagnant US middle income wages, and how a traditional institutional investor manages the changed structure of the markets.

The length of the interview is 16 minutes 10 seconds.

To listen to this interview, click here

Note: Phil is actively involved with FECA, the Foundation for Educating Children with Autism

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

James J. Valentine, CFA

Ivory tower meets real world.

Once in a great while, a book comes along that blends the theoretical with the practical in such a way that readers are treated to insights of great value. Such is the case with "Best Practices for Equity Research Analysts: Essentials for Buy-Side and Sell-Side Analysts", the topic of this week's interview.

The former multi year II ranked analyst and former director of global training and development with Morgan Stanley describes in five parts how to excel as an equity analyst. Anyone interested in, involved in, or considering a career as an equity analyst (buy or sell side) will have their knowledge and almost certainly their career enhanced. I cannot overstate the usefulness provided.

To listen to the 15 minutes 32 second interview, click here

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Phil Roth, CMT

In his last appearance back in April 2010, I asked the highly respected market strategist, "Is the bull done?" His reply now is the same as then, "Not yet". This despite the continuing absence of any meaningful participation by traditional investors (professional and non) and the risk that having an equity market dominated by the fast money crowd (hedgies and others).

In such a non traditional bull market, what are the market related signs one should be on the lookout for? What are seasoned Wall Street veteran's likes and dislikes in the market? And is the market climbing a wall of worry?

These and other issues are discussed in my 12 minute 37 second interview.

To listen to this interview, click here

Friday, January 28, 2011

Vinny in the media

My "Tale of Two Halves" is the central focus of my latest media appearances: "Taking Stock with Pimm Fox" yesterday and on New Delhi TV on January 14th.

To listen to the Taking Stock interview, click here

To view the New Delhi TV segment, click here

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

George Milling-Stanley

The Bard once wrote, "All that glitters is not gold". The precious metal may glitter uniquely among assets, but how does one measure the value of gold? Can one measure the value of gold?

In my interview with the Managing Director, Government Affairs for the World Gold Council, key factors in assessing the precious metal are explored. Additionally, understanding the role of gold and central bank's reserves ("The Importance of Gold in Reserve Asset Management") is discussed*.

To listen to the 15 minutes 16 second interview, click here

*A video version of this report can be found here.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

William Hartung

Too big to fail. Think it pertains only to the banking industry? Think again.

With the defense budget representing a very large chunk of the US federal pie, it behooves all investors to better understand this vital area of US government, not to mention the US economy. From his most recent book, "Prophets of War: Lockheed Martin and the Making of the Military-Industrial Complex", key aspects of President Eisenhower's final speech warning is fleshed out by the defense expert with the "New America Foundation". The consequences of actions - economic and geo political - go far beyond the industry itself and cannot be overstated.

To listen to the 13 minutes 33 second interview, click here

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Robert Arnott

To most investors, including many investment professionals, indexes are constructs designed to track a defined area of the economy, usually via financial assets. Yet, "indexing as an investment concept" is far more prevalent than most realize.

In my interview with the co-author of " The Fundamental Index" and Chairman, Founder of Research Affiliates, we explore such areas as efficient indexing, the market inefficiencies that result from cap weighted indexes, and RAFI, the Research Affiliates Fundamental Index approach to investing. For those interested in understanding an investing methodology that large institutional investors such as PIMCO utilize, this interview will open the door to a fascinating and largely under-appreciated segment of the financial markets.

To listen to the 15 minutes 25 second interview, click here