Talking Head Alert

2 media appearances today - BNN TV at 2:30 and Bloomberg radio (Taking Stock with Pimm Fox) at 4 PM (both times are eastern US).

Prospective talking points:

Impressions from my 10 events over 6 weeks
Why are investors still so cautious?
What can an investor do when he/she gets it wrong?

Taking Stock appearance

Following on my foxbusiness.com appearance (see post below), my most recent Taking Stock with Pimm Fox and Courtney Donohue includes concerns re the risks of the US markets marching ahead of world markets and, wearing the interviewer hat, I get to quiz fellow guest Doug Ramsey. To listen, click here

foxbusiness.com appearance

My appearance yesterday with Tracy Byrnes at Fox Business explores the January effect, the importance of seeing the full January performance and not just the first two weeks, the continued hollowing out of the US economy, and the consequences of the whopping $20B increase consumer credit.

Taking Stock appearance

My most recent Taking Stock with Pimm Fox and Courtney Donohue is a year end look at the markets and economy. To listen, click here

foxbusiness.com appearance today

foxbusiness.com appearance today

Talking Head Alert: foxbusiness.com Today

Okay, so I look prescient (at least for 3 days) after last Thursday's appearance on Bloomberg radio's "Talking Stock with Pimm Fox and Courtney Donohoe" some 60 S&P 500 points ago. Now what?

Today's talking head appearance affords me another opportunity to describe my emerging bear call and can be viewed at foxbusiness.com (not on cable) at 1 PM (eastern) today.

In addition to my submitted suggested talking points (below, sent yesterday), I hope to explain why
1 - Big market moves within defined trading ranges mean nothing.
2 - On its own, moves above and below the 200 day average also mean nothing.

Plus the emerging bull market in Komboloi (see accompanying image).

Suggested talking points:

Commentary: Blind Faith

* Bottom up type of investors - those that make investment decisions based primarily (many exclusively) on earnings - have helped drive stocks to current levels.
* Following their lead is a very dangerous practice for investors, as bottom up investors have an investment method that is fraught with danger.
* Last Thursday's stock market rally illustrated just how dangerous their approach to investing is: driving stocks higher on the news of the Eurozone deal without full knowledge of the deal's consequences.
* Their method - earnings matter above all else - is anchored in the belief that what's good for business is good for the economy. To believe this is to believe in laissez-faire economics, that unfettered markets work best, that government that governs least governs best.
* One would think that the recent experience (2007 - 2009) would have put this thinking to bed. But old ideas based on an ideology (dogma) die hard.

Market Assessment

* There is neither a fundamental nor a technical analysis reason to change my early bear call.
* My proprietary Mega Trend is still strongly in the bear category.
* Earnings are on the verge of a serious decline into 2012 (and beyond) as the Eurozone slips into recession.
* At best, stocks should sell at a low double digit P/E, not the current average (15 times) P/E.

Actionable Items

* Resist the siren call of the bottom up bulls. Keep a low equity exposure (50 to 60%).
* Put on mega cap, small cap hedges (long mega cap OEF, long the inverse small cap RWM).
* Be prepared to drop the equity exposure below 50% when the second wave of the bear emerges.

To view the segment live, click here.

Bloomberg Radio Today

In addition to answering (explaining!?! defending!?!) why I believe this is a counter rally within an emerging bear market, I am hopeful that today's Bloomberg radio segment (4:30 PM easter, "Talking Stock with Pimm Fox and Courtney Donohoe") will touch on the risks inherent in the methodology that most traditionally trained bottom-up portfolio managers and strategists employ in their investment decision-making. And why it is risky to follow those who employ this approach with its faulty premises and embedded blind spots.

To listen to the segment live, click here.

China's Ghost Cities

This week's Quotable Quotes takes a look at China's ghost cities via a recent (March 2011) investigative report from SBS Dateline (Australian TV). If investors are looking for the other economic shoe to drop on the tenuous global economic environment, this very well could ultimately be the source.

Protest Movement

What's a protest movement without a little kid dancing. (3 minute mark is the best.)

Quotable Quotes: Steve Jobs

September 30 media appearances

On Friday, September 30, I had the pleasure of being a guest on two programs - foxbusiness.com with Tracy Byrnes and Bloomberg radio''s "Talking Stock with Pimm Fox and Courtney Donohoe".

Topics discussed include the prospect of disappointing, perhaps very disappointing, 3Q11 earnings; asset allocation and portfolio strategies for these volatile markets; and the market impact and importance of family offices.



To listen to the Bloomberg radio interview click here.